Saudi-Iran Relations Enter New Phase with Military Cooperation Amid Regional Shifts

Riyadh-Tehran Rivalry Eases as Both Nations Engage in Strategic Dialogue

Saudi Arabia and Iran’s decades-long rivalry, intensified by sectarian divides and conflicting geopolitical interests, began to de-escalate following a landmark China-brokered agreement in March 2023. Diplomatic relations were restored after being severed in 2016, when Saudi Arabia executed Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, sparking protests and the storming of the Saudi embassy in Tehran. This agreement, which followed several rounds of dialogue facilitated by Oman and Iraq, was seen as a major diplomatic breakthrough and a testament to China’s growing influence in the region​.

October 2024 Diplomatic Engagements Signal Further Progress

On October 9, 2024, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Riyadh, discussing key regional security issues, including the conflicts in Yemen and the Israel-Palestine situation. In a significant development, Iran’s Navy Commander, Admiral Shahram Irani, announced plans for joint military exercises with Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea. This initiative underscores the shifting dynamics in Middle Eastern military cooperation​.

​Joint Military Exercise: A Strategic Shift in Middle East Relations

Iranian sources claim that Saudi Arabia initiated the proposal for joint naval exercises aimed at ensuring maritime security in key waterways like the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. However, Saudi Arabia has yet to officially confirm its participation. The exercise, if realized, would mark a rare moment of military cooperation between two historically adversarial powers​.

Geopolitical Implications of the Saudi-Iran Military Collaboration

The joint military exercises, while still in the planning stages, have significant geopolitical ramifications:

Red Sea Security: As a vital waterway for global trade, joint patrols by Saudi Arabia and Iran could enhance maritime security, stabilizing one of the world’s most strategic corridors​.

Power Balance: Cooperation between these two regional powers could signal a shift away from proxy conflicts, notably in Yemen, where both nations have supported opposing factions​.

Proxy Wars: This collaboration may also reflect a broader effort to reduce involvement in regional proxy wars. In Yemen, for example, a truce has been in place since 2022, which could be strengthened through Saudi-Iranian security cooperation​.

Regional and Global Reactions

The potential military collaboration has attracted global attention:

U.S. and Western Allies: While the U.S. supports improved relations between Riyadh and Tehran, it remains cautious, particularly regarding Iran’s broader regional ambitions. Washington’s traditional role as Saudi Arabia’s primary security guarantor may face challenges as Riyadh deepens ties with Iran​.

China’s Role: China’s successful mediation in the Saudi-Iran agreement has enhanced its reputation as a key diplomatic player in the Middle East. Beijing’s role in facilitating the military collaboration highlights its expanding influence in regional affairs​.

Changing Middle East Dynamics: The Israel-Palestine Factor

The Saudi-Iran rapprochement has implications for Israel’s regional strategy. Saudi Arabia has shifted its focus, prioritizing the establishment of a Palestinian state as a prerequisite for normalization with Israel, a stance that emerged following the Gaza conflict. This represents a significant change in Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic approach and complicates Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hopes for a historic deal with Riyadh​.

While Saudi Arabia has not yet officially confirmed its participation in the joint naval drills, the announcement alone marks a significant development in Middle Eastern geopolitics. If the exercises go forward, they could signify a new era of security cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, helping to stabilize key maritime routes. However, external pressures from the U.S. or Israel could still affect the outcome​.

Conclusion

The planned joint military exercises between Saudi Arabia and Iran signal a potential transformation in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Although still in the consultation phase, this collaboration could reshape regional alliances and contribute to greater security in vital maritime routes. Ongoing monitoring is essential to assess how this cooperation evolves and its broader implications for the region’s geopolitical landscape.