Video Analysis: Speculations Surrounding Ramzan Kadyrov’s Health
Following the passing of Evgenyy Prigozhin, the former head of the Wagner Group, significant public attention, both domestically and internationally, has shifted toward the head of the Chechen Republic of Russia, Ramzan Kadyrov. Amidst conspiracy theories suggesting that Kadyrov could meet a fate similar to that of Wagner Group’s leader, speculations about Kadyrov’s health status have been rampant since March 2023 when a German newspaper, Bild, published an article suggesting he was suffering from kidney disease.
These rumors gained fresh momentum in late September when Telegram channels began reporting Kadyrov’s presence at Moscow Central Clinical Hospital known for taking care of high-ranking officials since the Soviet era.
On September 17th, Abubakar Yangulbaev, a human rights activist in Chechnya, made a claim on his Telegram channel, asserting the demise of Ramzan Kadyrov.
Just half an hour before Yangulbaev’s announcement, Kadyrov posted a video on his Telegram channel, showcasing his presence at his Grozny residence in Chechnya. In the video, he urged his followers to discern between truth and falsehood.
Source: Kadyrov_95/ Telegram
The video is taken at 43°18’50.33″N, 45°42’19.95″E
Later that same day, the Telegram channel “@vchkogpu” released a series of photos featuring vehicles with Chechen plates, including one intriguing image of a “Gelandewagen” situated in the backyard of the 5th building on the hospital’s premises.
On September 18th, “@vchkogpu” posted another publication in which they reported on the gathering of Chechen and government vehicles behind the 5th hospital building.
The photos of the 5th hospital building from the official web-site:
Source: Central Clinical Hospital
On September 20th, Ramzan Kadyrov ended his three-day Telegram silence by sharing a video from the hospital, where he was visiting his uncle, reportedly receiving treatment at the same facility. This video serves to elucidate Kadyrov’s presence at the hospital and provide evidence of his well-being.
Source: Kadyrov_95/ Telegram
Internet conspiracies surrounding the video encompassed theories such as Kadyrov’s double appearing in the footage, observations of a mysterious “medical device” on his finger, speculations about his uncle potentially donating a kidney to Ramzan, and more. Amidst these speculations, the central question persisted: was the video staged, or is Magomed Kadyrov indeed in the hospital? The WNM team diligently analyzed the posted video and is now ready to share the findings.
First, the mysterious medical device theory gained traction on the Internet:
Source: Charter97
“Medical device” spotted at the newest video from the hospital.
Source: Ukrainian Truth
However, Kadyrov himself responded to these rumors in a Telegram post from 15th March. The device on his finger is an automatic counter he uses for religious purposes.
Source: Kadyrov_95/ Telegram
Picture of a similar model:
Source: OZON Marketplace
Our team started the analysis with checking metadata for the video. The date of creation matches the date announced in the video.
The metadata also includes a list of the footage sources. All of these clips were captured using the same camera, and the only additional audio track appears to be a song at the end of the video. Therefore, all the audio was presumably recorded with the same camera under identical settings. The listed footages bear the names C4026, C4032, C4033, C4036, and C4037.
However, the dialogue between, presumably, Kadyrov and the doctor didn’t remain unaltered. This becomes evident at 0:00:14 when the doctor is asked, “For how much longer will the patient stay in the hospital?” To which the doctor responds, “Well, today is the 20th of September, 2 more weeks.” What raises suspicion is the audio waveform, where it appears that Kadyrov’s statement was inserted between the doctor’s response. Another significant detail supporting this hypothesis is the presence of sounds from medical equipment in the audio track; however, the pattern (the time intervals between two beeps) has been disrupted.
The footage used in the video contains several wide shots with different positioning of people and their postures, two close shots of a doctor and the patient.
All the footages from similar angles combined. The same close-up footage of M. Kadyrov is used twice.
According to the information on the website, Moscow Central Hospital provides luxury rooms for the patients:
However, it was impossible to find any matching room to the one shown in the video.
The less expensive rooms of the 5th building also don’t match the layout and have a different model of beds in them.
Source: Photogallery of the Central Hospital
The official website of the hospital also posted several videos of their personnel and interior.
Thus, the same exact models of diffusors were found. It’s a BRAUN Perfusor Space, widely used in the hospital.
The same model of the bed can be seen used in the hospital; however, with a different set of equipment.
The health monitor used in the video is a Draeger Infinity Delta. The yellow square seen indicates that one of the indicators is below a certain level or just not connected to the patient in this case.
Picture of a Draeger Infinity Delta/ Open Sources
The number of catheters and the method of their installation also raise concerns.
The TV program on the hospital’s website allowed us to obtain some footage of the badges doctors wear. The badge seems to be authentic.
Next day, on September 21st, Kadyrov’s Telegram channel released a video capturing his meeting with the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations. On the same day, “@vchkogpu” reported the arrival of a government motorcade and a helicopter at the 5th building of the hospital. Telegram channels circulated two theories: one suggesting Kadyrov’s departure to meet the minister, and the other proposing that the minister was brought to the hospital.
First, metadata shows videoframes used from files named C4044 and C4046. The previous video used files named C4026, C4032, C4033, C4037. This chronological order allows us to conclude that the meeting video was filmed after Kadyrov’s visit to his uncle.
Metadata of video from 09/21
Metadata of video from 09/20
With a noticeable audio track mismatch in mind, the WNM team scrutinized other details within the video that might shed light on the situation.
The calendar in the background, featuring the date of September 21st, seems to have been deliberately positioned within the camera’s view.
The bottles on the table match the bottles from the previous video:
And, the plant and its pot match ones grown in the hospital.
Pictures of the hospital’s cafeteria:
Source: Foursquare City Guide
Moreover, in the video from September 21st, Ramzan Kadyrov is missing his usual device on his index finger.
Thus, the video analysis helped to establish that all the events most likely were held inside the hospital building. Moreover, all of them most likely were staged with great attention to the date. Kadyrov seems to be very interested in demonstrating his well-being and disproving any rumors being circulated.
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