Chechnya’s Missile Defenses Under Scrutiny After Plane Crash

Kazakhstan’s Transport Ministry has released a preliminary report on the December 25, 2024, crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) Embraer 190 near Aktau. The document provides details on weather conditions, a reconstructed timeline, and partial transcripts of communications between the pilots and air traffic controllers. While investigators noted challenging weather, they do not consider it severe enough to have caused the crash on its own. The aircraft’s black box and flight data recorder were recovered and analyzed, but the full cockpit recordings have not been released, leaving some uncertainty about the final moments before impact. Experts have pointed out that the available transcripts, while informative, do not present a complete picture of the failures leading to the disaster.

One of the most critical findings is evidence of external impacts that triggered multiple system failures. At 05:13:31, the Cockpit Voice Recorder captured a loud noise, followed by the disconnection of autopilot and autothrottle systems. Four seconds later, the third hydraulic system failed, followed by the first hydraulic system two seconds after that. The second hydraulic system failed 21 seconds after the initial noise, making normal flight control impossible. The report also highlights multiple punctures in the aircraft’s fuselage, particularly in the tail section, stabilizers, left engine, and wing. Some of these punctures had regular rectangular shapes, suggesting penetration by external objects. Investigators concluded that these damages occurred before impact and likely led to the loss of hydraulic fluid and pressure, ultimately disabling key control systems.

The black boxes were sent to Brazil’s Aeronautical Accidents Investigation and Prevention Center (CENIPA) for analysis before the data was returned to Kazakhstan for further examination. Investigators are also reviewing radar tracking data to determine whether any airborne threats were present at the time of the crash. The presence of external objects and the nature of the damage have fueled speculation about a possible explosion or missile strike, though the exact cause has not yet been confirmed. Further expert analysis is underway to determine the precise origin of the external impacts.

Speculations and Investigations

Since the public release of the flight records last month, various theories have been circulating regarding the cause of the crash. One widely discussed hypothesis is that the aircraft was struck by a Russian Pantsir-S missile. This theory gained traction after Reuters cited sources within the Azerbaijani government alleging that Russian forces were responsible for the incident. Independent analysts reviewing satellite imagery from the time of the crash have noted possible launch activity in Russian-controlled areas near Chechnya, adding further weight to this claim.

Although Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an apology for the incident, which took place in Russian-controlled airspace, Moscow has not formally accepted responsibility for the crash. On February 6, the Azerbaijani government announced its intention to bring the matter before an international court, seeking accountability and reparations. Legal experts indicate that such a case would require substantial evidence, including weapon fragments retrieved from the wreckage, to establish culpability. Meanwhile, Western intelligence agencies have begun their own analyses, assessing whether electronic warfare systems played a role in the disruption of the aircraft’s navigation.

Reports suggest that the situation in Grozny was highly volatile at the time of the crash. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were reportedly present in the area, leading to active missile engagements. Military sources have confirmed that multiple anti-aircraft systems were activated that night, possibly in response to a suspected Ukrainian drone incursion. The transcripts indicate that the emergency protocol known as “Operation Kovyor”—which dictates that no aircraft should remain airborne when a city or airport is under attack—was implemented after the crash, rather than in advance, raising concerns about delayed responses by local authorities. Some aviation experts have criticized the failure to preemptively shut down airspace as a violation of international safety protocols.

The recent aviation disaster has significantly escalated tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainian officials have seized upon the incident as further proof of Russia’s hazardous military conduct in contested regions. They argue that the downing of the aircraft exemplifies Moscow’s disregard for civilian safety amidst military operations. In contrast, Russian state media outlets, notably RT, have amplified the Kremlin’s demand for a “comprehensive and impartial investigation” into the circumstances surrounding the crash. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized Russia’s anticipation of the investigative commissions’ findings, while simultaneously criticizing the perceived opacity in granting access to critical evidence. Adding to the complexity, Ukrainian intelligence sources allege they have intercepted communications indicating that Russian military units erroneously identified the civilian aircraft as a hostile threat, leading to a premature engagement.

The Azerbaijani government has unequivocally attributed the tragedy to Russian actions, contending that the disaster was preventable with proper airspace management and coordination by Russian authorities. In response to the incident, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has called for Russia to acknowledge its culpability, issue a formal apology, and provide compensation to the victims’ families. This stance has been reinforced by Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which has issued statements underscoring the necessity for accountability and transparency in the ongoing investigation. The ramifications of the crash have also prompted a reevaluation of flight operations in the region. Uzbekistan Airways, among other carriers, has announced the rerouting of its European-bound flights to circumvent Russian and Belarusian airspace, citing heightened safety concerns. Concurrently, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has updated its advisories, cautioning airlines about the increased risks associated with operating near conflict zones, thereby influencing flight paths throughout the Caucasus region.

Reconstruction of the Events

The Embraer 190 attempted two landings at Grozny airport but failed due to worsening weather and potential electronic interference. The pilots opted to return to Baku, but during the transition, the aircraft reportedly lost steering capabilities, leading to an emergency diversion to Aktau. Experts note that system failures aligned with reports of missile defense activation in the region.

• 05:13:32 – Steering system failure occurs.
• 05:42 – Pilots divert to Aktau for an emergency landing.
• 10:47 (local time) – Pilots report a “bird strike” and estimate arrival at Aktau by 11:16.
• 11:21 – Aircraft visible on radar.
• 11:25 – Aircraft disappears from radar.
• 11:28 – Crash occurs near Say’un, approximately 5 km from Aktau International Airport.
• 11:35 – Emergency responders arrive at the crash site.

With new survivor testimonies and photographic evidence, the World News Monitors (WNM) team reconstructed the sequence of events. Evidence suggests the aircraft reached Grozny and allegedly was shot after two failed landing attempts. Images show extensive cabin damage consistent with survivor accounts.

One passenger described the experience:

“Through the window, I saw dense fog. The first landing attempt failed, and after a second attempt, the plane gained altitude. I heard a loud clap—some said an explosion. The plating inside the cabin started peeling, and oxygen masks deployed. The crew spoke in Azerbaijani, trying to keep us calm.

“I used an oxygen mask, but it had little air. I moved to another seat, tried another mask—still no oxygen. I prayed. Then, I felt as if the engines stopped. Panic lasted for 20-30 minutes before an eerie calm set in—we thought we would land elsewhere. But as the aircraft became uncontrollable, we realized something catastrophic was happening.

“The flight attendants instructed us to brace. Within seconds, flames engulfed us. I was tossed around violently before everything went silent.”

Another survivor recounted:

“They announced we’d be in Grozny in 15 minutes. As we entered the fog, the plane climbed suddenly. Then, an explosion. A flight attendant ran from the tail section as cabin plating peeled away.

“Seconds later, a second explosion further damaged the interior. Oxygen masks dropped, but they had no air. People panicked. Over the Caspian Sea, the plane nearly crashed twice. Then, another explosion. I heard a strange humming as if we were gliding. I blacked out and woke up alone in the wreckage.”

Testimonies indicate severe structural damage occurred before reaching the Caspian Sea. Reports mention two consecutive explosions. Videos from inside the plane suggest the damage trajectory was from the left side.

Determining the exact missile launch site is difficult. The Embraer 190’s GPS was inactive, requiring radar-based trajectory reconstruction. FlightRadar published raw data, but erratic maneuvers around Grozny complicate pinpointing the military base responsible.

Photographic evidence shows burn marks around fuselage holes, inconsistent with a bird strike. Pilot recordings confirm oxygen deprivation, aligning with survivor reports of failed oxygen masks.

Evidence strongly suggests the Embraer 190 was shot down following failed landing attempts at Grozny. The nature of the damage, explosions, and oxygen failure indicate an external attack. However, further analysis is needed to confirm the missile origin and responsible entity.

Chechen Missile Defense Capabilities and Their Implications

Open-source intelligence (OSINT) communities have been scrutinizing the effectiveness of Chechnya’s air defense systems. A prevailing theory suggests that these systems failed to protect the region from incoming threats, potentially leading to the tragic incident. Abubakar Yangulbaev, a critic of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, discussed the state of Chechen air defenses in an interview with “Nastoyashcheye Vremya.” He suggested that Kadyrov’s emphasis on political propaganda and unwavering loyalty to Moscow may have compromised the region’s security infrastructure.​

Satellite imagery analyzed by OSINT groups indicates that multiple military installations in Chechnya have been targeted by Ukrainian drone strikes in recent months. Notably, in late October, a drone attack damaged the roof of the Russian Special Forces University in Gudermes. Subsequent strikes in December targeted the Akhmad Kadyrov 2nd Special Police Regiment in Grozny. These repeated assaults may have depleted missile reserves and diminished the effectiveness of Chechnya’s air defense capabilities. 

Ramzan Kadyrov has long prioritized air defense, publicly advocating in 2022 for the deployment of advanced air-defense missiles in Chechnya, citing the region’s strategic importance. This has fueled speculation about his motives, with some suggesting he is preparing for potential instability within Russia, including the possible collapse of President Putin’s regime and ensuing civil unrest. Despite these preparations, Chechnya, particularly its capital Grozny, has seen an increase in attacks, mainly from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Reports indicate that Chechnya has acquired the “Pantsir” missile system to bolster defenses around critical military sites, such as the “Khankala” base.

The “Pantsir” system is now being scrutinized as a potential cause of a recent airplane crash, as its smaller warhead could allegedly explain the damage observed in images of the wreckage. Another possible explanation is the “Tor” system, which has similarly sized warheads and causes comparable damage to targets. However, evidence suggests that the Pantsir system is more regularly used in Chechnya than the “Tor” system, making it the more likely candidate.

The recent crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines flight has intensified discussions about the readiness and reliability of Chechnya’s air defense systems. Some experts posit that the aircraft may have been inadvertently targeted by these defenses during active operations against perceived threats.

International Response and Future Airspace Use

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) issued a Conflict Zone Information Bulletin in January 2025, advising airlines to avoid Russian airspace west of longitude 60° East at all altitudes. The advisory, in effect until July 31, 2025, reflects heightened safety concerns linked to the ongoing war in Ukraine and incidents such as the December 2024 downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft by Russian air defenses.

The directive reinforces Russia’s growing isolation from global air traffic networks, a trend that began in 2022 when European carriers first started bypassing Russian airspace. The resulting flight detours have led to longer travel times and higher operational costs, with airlines like British Airways suspending routes such as London-Beijing due to extended durations and increased fuel expenses.

To counter these challenges, aviation safety experts advocate for expanded air corridors through Central Asia. The shift not only mitigates security risks but also presents opportunities for regional aviation markets. Rising air traffic over Central Asian countries has prompted investments in infrastructure and regulatory improvements aimed at accommodating demand while enhancing safety protocols.

Despite these adaptations, disparities in international aviation have emerged. While European and North American airlines comply with EASA’s guidance, carriers from nations including China, India, and the UAE continue using Russian airspace, gaining efficiency advantages through shorter routes and reduced fuel consumption. This imbalance has fueled discussions on the need for a coordinated global approach to airspace restrictions during conflicts, ensuring both security and fair competition.

EASA’s advisory has reshaped international aviation, underscoring the growing significance of alternative flight routes and international cooperation in maintaining safety and equity in air travel.